“The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed the fragility of the global food system and the need for more equitable, sustainable and resilient systems to nutritiously and consistently feed 8.5 billion people by 2030. A radical transformation of our agri-food systems is needed to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.”

Statement from the Global Network Against Food Crises

An increasing number of countries are facing devastating levels of acute food insecurity. COVID-19, amongst other factors, has led to severe and widespread increases in global food insecurity.

These realities have been affecting vulnerable households in almost every country and the impacts are expected to continue through 2021 and into 2022.

This brief looks at rising food insecurity during the COVID-19 pandemic and a 2021 report organized by the Global Network Against Food Crises, a partnership between the European Union, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and the UN World Food Programme (WFP).

1. 2021 Food Crisis: A Grim Look Ahead
2. Key Drivers: Triggered by conflict, exacerbated by COVID-19, and climate change
3. A Global Call for Help & Emergency Measures
4. Funding Gap

2021 Food Crisis: A Grim Look Ahead

COVID-19, among other factors, is estimated to have severely increased the number of people facing acute food insecurity in 2020-2021.

As of April 2021, the World Food Programme (WFP) estimates that 296 million people are without sufficient food – 111 million more people than in April 2020 (World Food Bank, 2020a).

In a recent report released by the Global Network Against Food Crises (GNAFC), the magnitude and severity of food crises has reached an all-time high (GNAFC, 2021).

The report draws on globally recognized measures of extreme hunger, such as the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) and the Cadre Harmonisé (CH).

Spanning across Haiti to Syria, 142 million people who rely the most on humanitarian assistance are projected to be classified as being in a food “crisis”, a 44 million increase since 2016 (GNAFC, 2021).

The situation is expected to worsen in mid-2021, impacting 155,000 people, including those living in South Sudan (108,000) and Yemen (47,000), both countries likely to face catastrophe or famine (IPC Phase 5) as a result of the protracted conflicts coupled with the COVID-19 pandemic (GNAFC, 2021).

The report provides a concerning outlook for 2021, with projections indicating that over 97 million people will be in a food crisis in eight of the10 identified worst countries or territories.

The three countries with the highest number of people projected to experience food crises in 2021 are the Democratic Republic of the Congo (27.3 million), Yemen (16.1 million), and Afghanistan (13.2 million) (GNAFC, 2021).

Other countries listed in the top eight include Nigeria (15 states and FCT), Ethiopia, South Sudan, Zimbabwe and Haiti (GNAFC, 2021).

As the food crisis worsens in these regions, the number of children suffering from wasting (too thin) and stunting (too short) are expected to reach devastating levels.

In 2020, the GNAFC reported that over 75 million children under five were stunted and over 15 million were wasted (GNAFC, 2021).

The countries experiencing the worst food crises in 2020 were particularly affected by nutrition and health service disruptions mostly attributable to COVID-19 restrictions.

On the contrary, the countries or territories with the highest prevalence of wasting were most affected by protracted conflict.

Key Drivers

The 2020 report attributed three main factors to the worsening situation: conflict, economic factors related to the COVID pandemic, and climate change.

Projections show hunger crises to be escalating and since the release of the report, the impact behind these factors have only magnified.

Conflict

We are undoubtedly facing multiple conflict-driven famines around the world. Shifting conflict dynamics, insecurity, and armed violence in Afghanistan, Central African Republic, Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali and the Niger), Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, northern Nigeria, northern Mozambique, Somalia, South Sudan and Sudan could lead to intensified violence and exasperated extremes of food insecurity in 2021.

In some countries, famine is already here and people are dying from hunger and suffering critical rates of malnutrition. Parts of Yemen, South Sudan, and Burkina Faso are in the grip of famine or conditions akin to famine.

Economic Shocks

The COVID-19 pandemic is still not under control, leaving tens of millions of vulnerable people unable to afford food as they experience severe job and income losses.

Weather Extremes

The frequent threat of weather extremes is resulting in crop and livestock losses, destroying homes, and displacing people, along with the persisting threat of desert locust infestations, which are already causing damage to crops and rangeland in southern and south-eastern Ethiopia, central and northern Kenya and Somalia.

Chronic sporadic violence, extreme weather, and the economic impact of COVID-19 have pushed more than 142 million people into acute food insecurity.

The intensifying impacts of these shocks are triggering a global economic crisis and disproportionately hurting economies in developing countries, and exacerbating already fragile conditions, including in countries with ongoing conflicts.

A Global Call for Help

In an effort to act urgently, in March 2021, UN Secretary General of the United Nations, António Guterres established a High-Level Task Force on Preventing Famine, led by the Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator.

The task force is in development along with the FAO, WFP, and the support of the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) and other UN agencies and NGO partners (UN, 2021).

The Task Force aims to bring coordinated, high-level attention to famine prevention and mobilize support to the most affected countries by:

1. scaling up safety net programs; 
2. keeping food moving; 
3. distributing and improving access to food; 
4. protecting jobs and livelihoods;
5. supporting next season production;
6. supporting agribusinesses and small-scale entrepreneurs; and
7. mitigating the impacts and spread of locusts to reduce compounding effects on households

The Bleak Truth: We Need More Funding from International Donors 

This is the devastating reality in conflict zones and vulnerable countries around the world. 

We have a responsibility to do everything in our power to reverse these trends, starting by preventing the root cause of today’s crisis and preventing the deterioration into famine.

These actions require the transformation of agri-food systems to be more inclusive, resilient and sustainable. 

With the bleak 2021 projections, we need urgent funding from the international community to stave off widespread famine.